PAKISTAN STUDIES NOTES-GRADE 10TH

Chapter # 7 – Population

7.1.3. Discuss the Trends in Population Growth of Pakistan with Reference to Demographic Transition Model.

The Demographic Transition Model (DTM) provides a framework for understanding changes in population growth rates over time, typically in relation to economic development and social change. Pakistan’s population growth can be examined through the lens of the DTM:

1. Stage 1 – High Fluctuating: Historically, Pakistan was largely agrarian with high birth rates and high death rates, characteristic of Stage 1. The population growth was slow due to high mortality rates caused by diseases, famine, and limited medical facilities.
2. Stage 2 – Early Expanding: With advancements in healthcare, sanitation, and improvements in living conditions, Pakistan transitioned into Stage 2. During this phase, death rates declined significantly while birth rates remained high. This led to rapid population growth as more people survived into adulthood and had children. The country experienced a population explosion during this period.
3. Stage 3 – Late Expanding: As Pakistan continued to develop economically and socially, there was a gradual decline in birth rates. Factors contributing to this decline include increased urbanization, improved access to education (especially for women), and the adoption of family planning measures. Although birth rates remained relatively high, they started to approach the level of death rates, resulting in a slower rate of population growth compared to Stage 2.
4. Stage 4 – Low Fluctuating: Pakistan has not yet reached Stage 4, but some signs of transition are visible. Birth rates continue to decline, approaching or even falling below the death rates. This is often associated with a highly industrialized and urbanized society, where family planning is widely practiced and desired family sizes decrease.

In the case of Pakistan, while there has been progress in reducing birth rates, the transition through the stages has been slower compared to some other countries. This can be attributed to factors such as cultural norms favoring larger families, limited access to contraceptives in rural areas, and challenges in providing quality healthcare and education to the entire population.